U.P. THE SLEEPING GIANT :SECURITY IMPLICATIONS FROM ITS NORTHERLY NEIGHBOUR

“ TIBET IS CHINA’S PALM,

NEPAL,BHUTAN,SIKKIM,LADAKH,THE N.E.F.A. ARE THE FIVE FINGERS.

NOW THAT THE PALM HAS BEEN RESTORED TO CHINA,

THE FIVE FINGERS SHOULD GO WITH IT ”

                                                                                                  -CHINESE COMMUNIST PROPAGANDA

General

1.     Sardar Patel in his letter to Nehru in November 1950 had stated that in China he saw not a friend but a potential enemy. He had further said that with the likely disappearance of Tibet, China would expand up to India’s gates. He had averred that India’s Northern & North Eastern approaches consisting of Nepal, Bhutan, Sikkim, Darjeeling & the Tribal Belt of Assam being weak spots were extremely vulnerable. He elaborated that Nepal had a weak oligarchic regime based almost entirely on force that was in conflict with a turbulent element of the population as well as with the enlightened ideas of the modern age.

2.     This was a Strategic Vision & Thought of the Iron man that ended with his death. All what he had said in his detailed letter to Nehru became true as history unfolded itself later. It is unfortunate that even today, India does not have a documented National Strategy with a clear focus on her Vision & Strategic Culture. As a result, India has not been able to develop an Ideology that could spell out her National Interests. In International Relationship, there are no permanent friends or foes but permanent interests that matter.

3.     India thus does not have a clear cut idea as to what the Indians wish to achieve & this indecisiveness in formulating a Clear Cut Strategy has weakened our Nation. This in turn has resulted in springing up of a host of Internal & External threats with a weak Foreign Policy Apparatus.

4.     The Centre of Gravity of the world has surely shifted to South West & South Asia. With China having emerged as a force to reckon with & occupied a centre stage in Asia with an open nexus with Pakistan & Nepal, security of India needs to be revisited. Dragon’s String of Pearls Policy must be seen in this context. Our Operational Preparedness on the Northern, Central & Eastern Sectors needs to be strengthened.

5.     National security is a serious subject. India cannot afford to have knee jerk reactions & wake up only when water has flown over her head,as is normally the case! It is high time that the National Strategy is documented. Unless it is done, no National Security Strategy can be formulated/articulated & no clear cut tasks can be given to MOD & MHA. It is only after the National Security Strategy is formulated, that the Services & the Internal Security Apparatus can make their Doctrines keeping the overall National Interests in view.

Implications in UP-Nepal Border Security.

6.      The above has resulted in our weakness to confront effectively our Internal & External threats that complement each other. This impinges on the poor measures of security undertaken in areas of Uttarakhand , Uttar Pradesh         ( UP) , Bihar, West Bengal & North Eastern States –all bordering Nepal. Ever since India’s independence, very little has been achieved in improvement of intelligence, communications & infrastructure all along our Northern Borders. With a natural obstacle of Kali River all along the Uttarakhand-Nepal Border, easier infiltration routes in plenty are available all along the totally porous UP-Nepal Border East of Banbasa/ Mahendranagar.One can just walk across !

7.     Nepal remains unstable after the massacre of the Royal Family in 2001. Notwithstanding the Peace Accord signed between the Government & the Maoists & an Interim Constitution promulgated, high political instability continues to exist. While the Maoists were permitted to enter Nepalese Parliament in mid June 2007, even today, no permanent Constitution of Nepal has been formulated. The State remains in a state of flux & has been exploited to the hilt both by China & Pakistan. This has adversely impacted upon the psyche of a Nepali who very often gives vent to anti India feelings. This nexus is worrisome to Indian Integrity , Unity & Relationship - both countries have enjoyed from the days of yore.

8.     The above has tremendous security implications for India with particular reference to Uttar Pradesh that has a very long & open boundary coupled with porosity with Nepal. There are linkages between terrorism, illegal trafficking of Drugs, Gold, Charas & other Contraband Items, Human Trafficking, smuggling of Firearms, Skins of Tigers/Panthers & Horns/Bones/Internal organs of Wild Life & a host of other commodities. While SSB &other elements of CPO have been posted all along the Indo-Nepal Border to check this growing menace, nothing substantial seems to have been achieved. In addition, over the years, Pak ISI has developed deep roots inside Nepal. It is pertinent to mention here that a permanent element of US Troops is also stationed at Kathmandu. Nepal remains one of the world’s poorest nations having almost no industrial infrastructure, solely   surviving on insufficient local agricultural products & tourism.

Geo- Political & Geo-Strategic Importance

9.     The United Provinces in British India was a happening British State. To day, with a population of about 20 Crores (Low in HRD Index) which is approx 16 % of total Indian population, UP holds a strategic location in Indian Sub Continent. Politically commanding, UP also holds a wide communication network linking East with the West of India. As per 2011 statistics, 70% of UP’s population is literate. This is under national Education Average of 74 %.Women Folk are only 58% literate when compared with the National Education Index average of 65 %.In so far as Death of Children/Child Birth & Malnutrition is concerned, UP is amongst the leading states. With poor Leadership, Governance & massive corruption, the total revenues are very low. In 2010-11, the death rate of children in the age group up to 1 year was 21/1000 in a small & remote mountain District of Rudraprayag, Uttarakhand when compared to a whopping 103/1000 in Shrawasti in UP. This is about approx 5 times more.

10.  The Youth Factor in UP also needs to be harnessed. A majority of them are directionless, & hence, are exploited by political parties. India, today, is in a decisive stage of it's progression. With her youth population having nearly exceeded that of China; & this equation shall remain so for next 25 years, youth of UP shall have to be given a definite boost,direction,guidance,help of all sorts & preference by the ‘powers that be’. The demographic dividend should not turn into a demographic disaster. It must be clearly understood that development of any state is directly proportional to its political stability. Unfortunately, UP being politically volatile owing to caste, creed & religion based politics has not enjoyed this stability for a long time , as it has adversely impacted on her overall development, industrialization & prosperity. This is one of the major reasons that is exploited by ISI, ANEs,Mafias & all those who do not want UP to become  a successful state.

11.  Economically backward because of this, the weak spots remain in the fields of Education, Health, Industrialization, Nutrition, Human Rights, Un employability, Collection of Revenues, Law & Order Situation, etc. All this gets further aggravated because of caste & creed factors based upon local politics –some based upon some historical & religious factors & some on purely perceived animosities. So, UP has become a melting pot of all cultures good, bad, challenging &  alarming coming to it both from the bordering Indian State & other bordering Nation States. All this has inherent security ramifications.

12.  UP has its own problems - Economic, Jehadi & Left Wing Extremism. UP is one of the 20 affected Indian States.In all, about 223 Districts in these States are affected. Events in Varanasi in 2010 & CRPF Group Centre, Rampur in 2008 need to be seen in this light. A number of Mafia gangs also operate in the State with impunity. All this adds to the worry of Law & Order Maintenance Authorities & reflects upon Governance. Statistics in 2011 indicate that to subvert economy & finance Terrorist Groups, 10-15% of all Counterfeit Currency in circulation in India amounting to thousands of  Crores of Rupees came through Nepal-UP Border. The Central Economic Intelligence Bureau of India (CEIB) has stated that the total Counterfeit Currency in circulation in India is just about 30% of the total counterfeit currency in circulation to other countries. The cost of a Counterfeit Indian Rupee Note sold by Pakistan ISI to its selling agents is just one fifth, i.e., 20 Rs Only. The money thus collected is given to Terrorist/Jihadi Organizations for anti India activities.

13.  There are  hundreds of  Madarsas spread all along the UP –Nepal Boundary including that of Uttarakhand. Pakistan ISI & organized criminal Groups   (Dawood) are active in Nepal. Indian Air crafts hijacked from Kathmandu were as a result of this. Further, a number of Terrorists & ANEs infiltrate from the open borders of Nepal & Bangladesh at the points & places of their choosing. They indulge in sabotage activities inside India & help in pushing in contraband & counterfeit currency to weaken Indian Economy. A number of espionage activities coupled with Psychological Warfare sponsored both by China & Pakistan are carried out through these border belts to destabilize India. In addition, there are conduits that operate freely through Dubai, Bangkok, Singapore, Kathmandu & Dhaka working on a common grid.

14.  Pakistan ISI was using Nepal Maoists as a base for infiltrating into India & carry out sabotage/anti national activities. Infiltrating inside Indian Territory from Nepal is a walk through. With no identification & visas etc, it is now become a smugglers paradise. Most vulnerable Districts in Eastern UP are Sravasti , Balrampur, Siddarth Nagar & Maharaj Gunj. After the tension at the LC in J &K, strict vigil continues to be maintained to nab any terrorists trying to infiltrate into Indian Territory from Nepal.  In a state haunted by endemic political instability, major issues of development & economy in UP always get a back seat. This leads to uncertainty in the minds of people that in itself, is not conducive to overall security of the State. In turn, it also impacts upon social security, development & quality of life. With massive corruption, unemployment, extreme poverty, lack of communal harmony & dismal policing- all these factors become the breeding grounds to retard the growth of the State that is suffering from lack of Policy Stability over the years .These factors , in themselves, are grave security hazards.

 15.  Thousands of people travel to & fro daily between India & Nepal via UP. These people have been increasingly taking the advantage of the Visa Free Regime between India & Nepal .ISI & other ANEs thus slip into Indian side at will; in fact, walk through at any point & place of their own convenience!  Nepal has a 1868 Kms border belt with India in five States, viz,  Uttarakhand, UP, Bihar, West Bengal & 699 KMs with   Bhutan & Arunachal  Pradesh. Passing through these states is the same story. Time has come when there is a need to jointly make National Identity Cards to keep vigilance on the Indo-Nepal Border. Internal Security of India is directly dependent upon the External factors such as the situation in all neighbouring countries with particular reference to Nepal.

 

16.  UP has been, & shall always remain, the Focal Point & Nerve Centre of Indian Politics. More than 16% of Indian population resides here. But the State only accounts for a paltry 6% of India’s GDP. So UP shall have to focus on good governance in all its manifestations. In the present times, the Overall Economy of a State is a sum total of its State Economy (GDP), Knowledge Economy & Reputation Economy. The Prime Mover of these economies centres on the principal factor of SECURITY OF THE STATE because SECURITY IS A STATE OF MIND!!