EXTERNAL THREATS TO INDIA & SECURITY SCENARIO: NATIONAL SEMINAR

EXTERNAL THREATS TO INDIA & SECURITY SCENARIO: NATIONAL SEMINAR

BY

Lt Gen Dr Mohan Bhandari, PVSM, AVSM & Bar, D Litt, FIMA

1.     National Security is a dynamic outcome of interplay between a country’s external environment & its internal situation.

2.    The concept of National Security has diversified over the years to also include economic strength, internal cohesion, technological advancements & intrepidity. Also the 4 Generations Warfare & emergence of Non State Actors has added myriad dimensions to the future warfare.

3.         With utter lack of strategic culture coupled with grave crisis in leadership at all levels, India, in changing world order, finds herself at cross roads. The Centre of Gravity has changed towards South & South West Asia. Geography, technology, geo-politics, economy & culture mostly shape a nation state’s preferences in terms of hard power to serve its national security interests & objectives. Against this mosaic, in a fast emerging geo- political scenario, while India seeks to carve an independent path, the rise to a regional power status will require capable, ready & relevant instruments of power. With criticality in Afg-Pak Regions post Laden’s elimination, US -Pakistan relationship at its nadir, internal situation inside Pakistan in a state of total chaos & flux, China flexing its muscles & US determined to play more assertive role in Pacific Region along with Australia, there is a likelihood of a new cold war emerging in years ahead. It must be remembered that between nation states relationships, there are no permanent friends or foes; there are only permanent interests. India ,therefore, can no longer  continue undertaking fire brigade actions by not setting long term perspectives of her national interests

4.    The state of mess that we are in & with all the nexuses around, which does not bode well for the country’s future, it is high time that India needs to articulate her National Strategy. This would in turn provide the National Security Strategy. Absence of any long term vision & perspective has resulted in our unsatisfactory relations ranging from being hostile to indifferent with all our immediate neighbours .This bears a testimony to India’s cavalier attitude. National security is a serious subject & we cannot afford any longer to be complacent. Can any one of us define our Kashmir or China Policies?

5.     India occupies a pre-dominant strategic position in South Asia. The country shares land borders with six countries & is prone to external & internal threats. The external security threats essentially emanate from China & Pakistan. Clearly, the critical challenges that drive India to tailor her hard power entail effective border management, addressing both internal & external concerns as well as maritime security. With her two neighbours, China & Pakistan both nuclear states, India’s relations with both of them remain adversarial. Their strategic collusion in terms of military & nuclear cooperation has further vitiated India’s security environment. Pakistan’s animosity towards India is congenital. Some strategic analysts have started calling Pakistan as China’s Israel in South Asia.

6.    At the very outset let me give out some statistics. J & K, comprises of a total of Twenty Two Lakhs, Twenty Two Thousand Three Hundred & Two Sq Kms of area. Out of this, One Lakh Twenty Thousand Eight Hundred & Forty-Nine Sq Kms are under illegal possession of Pakistan & China. Pakistan is in illegal possession of 78,114 Sq Kms of area in Northern Areas & POK, while  China has occupied 37,555 Sq Kms of our area in Aksaichin in addition to 5180 Sq Kms of an area illegally ceded to her by Pakistan ( Shakshgam Valley) in 1963. In the Central Sector in Uttarakhand State in Chamoli District, China claims Barahoti Area -about 600 Sq Kms. In the North East, China claims the entire N.E.F.A -now Arunachal Pradesh. India talks of a length of 4117 Kms of border with China whereas China talks of only around 2000 Kms. China does not accept Arunachal Pradesh, POK & J & K as sovereign Indian Territory. It is good that India’s look East policy is opening up India’s historical assets in SE Asia. This further brings to the question whether China is sincere in its stand towards Sikkim. China opposes every deal India goes for. In Chinese perception, India is co opted into US policy in Asia as a deterrent to    China’s ambition to dominate Asia. China needs to    understand that India has her own independent foreign policy & national interests.

7.    The LOC with Pakistan is 772.1 Kms long. The IB is 242.2 Kms from BP-1 to Manawar Post.The AGPL in Siachen Sector is 121 Kms. The ethnocentric behaviourial pattern of China with total disregard to International Law is indicative of her belief that International Law  is scoped within her foreign policy thereby meaning her selective approach to deal with Treaties , Agreements, Customs & Undertakings.

8.    Having constructed 14 air bases (3 more in HA coming up) & an oil pipe line from Gormo to Lhasa, China has also reported to have deployed some two dozen ballistic missiles including nuclear capable ICBS in Tibet. Rail link from Gormo to Lhasa spanning about 1200 Kms is also nearing operational viability. It is pertinent to mention here that this nuclearisation is a potential hazard to South & South East Asia as Tibet is their primary water source.

9.    China always considered India under Imperialist influence & Tibet as a vassal state. Therefore, she does not recognize the Johnson & Mac Mohan Line. Imagine China calling Arunachal Pradesh as South Tibet & J & K a disputed territory! The recent Chinese denial of visa to a senior  Indian IAF Officer, has reaffirmed her stand.China calls Tibet as her palm with Nepal, Bhutan, Sikkim, Ladakh & the NEFA( Now Arunachal Pradesh)  as the five fingers. Now that the palm has been restored to China, the five fingers should go with it –this is how the Chinese propaganda goes.

10.  Kautilya had said that my enemy’s enemy is my best friend. How well this fits into the nexus of China & Pakistan! Let us not forget that China is an authoritarian state that is in full control of her sovereign power in formulating her policy towards India. The Theo-fascist state of Pakistan, also a functional client state of the US, has, for a long time in the past, surrendered her sovereignty of formulating her Indian Policy to her benefactor. Unlike China, State Power in Pakistan is husbanded by Gen Kayani & Company & the Punjabi feudalistic - bureaucratic combine. Along with it, the Pakistani drug traffickers, rabid fundamentalist organizations & exporters of terrorism & Theo-fascism bring up the tail end of the feudalistic military combine. Threat to India’s stability emanates from the fact that the democratic-secular structure of Indian polity is perceived as a menace, out to eliminate authoritarian rule & a theocratic system in her two neighboring Asian States.

11.    Both China & Pakistan must, therefore, project India as a ‘hegemonic’ nation state with intentions of bossing over the smaller states in SE Asia & the region. This typical stance has two implications; first, to create a fear amongst smaller states &, second, to legitimize interference & even presence of the unipolar power in the region. In early seventies, United States & China together developed good understanding in arming Pakistan as a regional deterrent to developing Indian democratic-secular state. An overall assessment of the US Policy in the continents of Asia, Africa & Latin America shows her willingness to accord tacit support to dictatorships & authoritarian regimes, out to curb democratic aspirations of the masses. It is now that US has realized that its policy towards India was misplaced & based on a deceitful Pakistan. US has now corrected the map of India after it realized the truth. Happenings in Tunisia, Yemen, Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain & growing signs of tension & unrest in the entire Arab World & other authoritarian regimes world wide including China are cases in point.

12.    US created the problems in Afghanistan through Pakistan by training thousands of Terrorists to drive Russians out. The crisis in Afghanistan is all their doing. The world’s strongest democracy is the strongest supporter of theo-fascism.This is so because the unipolar power must maintain her hold on the vast oil resources of the Arab World. United States finds enormous interests in the almost untouched vast mineral, gas & petroleum reserves of the CAR Region to which Pakistan has the key for overland entry since Iran has turned a so called rogue nation. With United States involvement in Afghanistan, the Al Qaeda, Taliban & LET are in a check. The moment United States withdraws, to my mind, all these may turn towards Jammu & Kashmir.

13.   America’s quest for a foothold in Kashmir, an ambition which was nursed way back in 1950s and was never suspended all these decades, aims at keeping a close watch over China. But China has the capacity not only to hold back the intruding American influence but also keep India within her limits. Make no mistakes & we all must understand that the presence of United States in any form & in any manifestation in the South Asian Region will invariably be with mutual understandings between Beijing & Islamabad. However, a shift is expected now. Beijing has the diplomatic & economic clout to derive adequate mileage out of American posture. After all, both are fully aware of the potential of India to become an industrial & economic giant given at least two decades of internal peace & external security. This is a critical factor. It is pertinent to mention that US has already established a permanent presence on the soil of Nepal.

14.  There is a strong presence of the Pak ISI in Nepal, our North East & Terai Regions of Uttarakhand, UP & Bihar. ISI has been pumping in fake currency notes as an overall part of Pakistan’s Economic Jihad towards India. China can just walk into Nepal through Kodari Highway. The threat from China   exists not only in the Northern, Central & Eastern Sectors but also through Nepal & through South China Sea into Indian Ocean. It is satisfying that India took a tough stand against China for exploration in Vietnam Seas. China has supplied military hardware & accoutrement to Nepal, Myanmar, Bangladesh & Sri Lanka besides her all weather friend Pakistan. Besides, China has adopted ‘pearl string necklace strategy’ by encircling India. China has established her presence in COCO Islands, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka & at Gwadar Port at the mouth of Strait of Hormuz. The tension between US & Iran in the strait is explosive. This area is extremely strategic as it controls oil supplies of Middle East flow of oil to India. India as an economic & nuclear power needs to match the military capabilities of her potential adversaries. I hasten to add here that while China’s strategic encirclement of India has been talked about at the international levels as well; it is the intelligence encirclement of India by pan-Islamic fundamentalists’ constituency that is highly dangerous & is equally a matter of grave concern.

15.  After 1971 Indo - Pak War resulting in a humiliating defeat to Pakistan, birth of Bangladesh & surrender of 93000 PWs, Pakistan realized her folly of having parity with India’s Armed Forces conventionally. This was the birth of nuclear bomb, subversion through proxy war, disinformation, international propaganda; trans -border terrorism, arms infiltration, fanning & support to dissident factions & like activities. In the last 16 years, the Pakistan Sponsored terrorism has cost more than 21,000 lives in J & K alone. With increasing collusion with China who is arming terrorist groups in North East as well, India today faces a threat from West, North & East.

16.  In the political landscape prevailing, while open confrontation with both the countries is not advocated, Indian Armed Forces preparedness to fight a war on two fronts needs to be deliberated upon very seriously. While the military establishment should continue to grow, so should be our national economy. Our border infrastructures all along the Sino-Indian border must be developed on top priority with no further delay. Raising of a couple of Mountain Divisions & move of a squadron or two to North East will not be of much help. There has to be a holistic assessment of threat perception, a National Strategy made & implemented.

17.  India shares 1650 Kms boundary with Myanmar. Both countries are grappling with insurgency on their common border.NSCN, PLA & ULFA continue to utilize safe havens in Myanmar territory.Mynmar is also equipped militarily by China. Recently there were some unconfirmed reports in the press indicating that Myanmar is on its way to make an atomic bomb.

18.  Both, the J & K Imbroglio & the Sino-Indian Dispute are linked with questions embracing history, ideology, psyche, territory, balance of power, etc. These disputes are not capable of solution by themselves. Any sincere endeavour to solve the mutual problems would mean creation of an environment of mutual trust & near ideal conditions between the three countries. This will never happen. Both Chinese & Pakistani actions smack of hostility & lack of sincerity towards India. India is not in a position presently to grant any concessions either to Pakistan or China. Both disputes have invited enough polemics in the past & will continue to do so in future as well. With growing Sino-Pak nexus, in the coming years, there are no hopes of solving both these disputes.

19.  In the foreseeable future, our multifarious security challenges will continue to emanate in various shapes & forms. Our external challenges will primarily emerge from our unresolved borders both with Pakistan & China with Sino-Pak as the major nexus & smaller irritants elsewhere. Our internal challenges will emanate from low intensity threats due to dismal governance, poverty, disparity, unemployment, ethnic, lingual, religious diversity & prevailing threats of terrorism. The internal & external threats are co-related & this dynamics is a matter of serious concern & worry. If unchecked now, these have enough potential to manifest into a possible uprising in our country.

20.   India shares its largest land boundary of 4100 Kms with Bangladesh. The annual illegal immigration is approx 3 Lakhs while the total No of Bangladeshis in India is apprx 15-17 Million. The growing anti India constituency in Bangladesh aided & abetted by Pak ISI adds up as a colluding factor for China that has been equipping Bangladesh military over the years.

21.    The intimacy between Prachanda & his Maoists & his terms & conditions with the newly elected Prime Minister of Nepal does not bode well for India. As it is, India was forced to deploy the SSB along the sensitive 1800 Kms long border with Nepal. Chinese PM’s visit to Nepal in January this year smacks of growing nexus between them. Out of apprx 23 Million population of Nepal, more than 9 Million reside in India. The Indian Army has apprx 35000 Gorkha personnel serving in 38 Gorkha Battalions & one Artillery Unit besides other Para Military Forces.It  was Prachanda who raised the bogey of ‘Kalapani’ & made it a big issue .Infact it was a big divider in Indo-Nepal relations.With hardly any economic development in the Hill Sector of Uttarakhand over the years,especially in the last 12 years,the chances of a strategic stalemate are on the rise.with two difficult neighbours, I feel that it is a matter of time that the Hill State of Uttarakhand may go the North East way.Dangerous conditions of roads,dismal health services, poor educational infrastructure  & communication services have added to the anger of the hilly people.The economic package could not climb up inspite of an industrial policy that has remained confined to files only.Lack of governance & political uncertainty ever since the State came to existence,there has been very little visible signs of development in the hills.With migration galore & vacation of the border belts, the security scenario is become critical.To top it,the regional divide,caste system & petty poltics have destroyed the  very roots & culture of the Dev Bhumi,Veer Bhumi & Kala Bhumi. Against this backdrop, where about 200 districts of India consisting more than 40 % of the country’s territory are affected by insurgencies/terrorism of various shades & degrees, the external dimension of threat to India becomes more acute.

22.   To match the challenges of national security, Indian Armed Forces must be strong & be able to express the will of the nation. Despite the fact that India has apprx 7600 Kms  ( including Lakshadweep, & Andaman & Nicobar Islands), of coast line & possesses some 1200 islands & 15 % of her population lives in coastal areas, & has a EEZ of 2.2 Million Sq Kms ,which is 66 % of the land mass of the country, India’s maritime security is least appreciated by the Nation & the ‘powers that be’. Nearly two thirds of India’s trade is by sea & as the economy grows, the present strength of India’s 510 merchant ships is likely to increase substantially. The ports (11 Major & 184 Minor) will have to be upgraded, modernized & well protected. Imagine Andaman & Nicobar Islands are 800 Kms apart with 223 Islands & Islets. India needs a very strong Navy. Indian navy must be strong enough to dominate entry points to Persian Gulf,Strait of Hormuz, Cape of Good Hope, Mozambique Channel, Straits of Malacca & Singapore. India’s maritime neighbourhood is critical for smooth flow of oil, raw materials & trade for several countries. India must be able to provide security in the sub-continental context.

23.  While our relations both with Pakistan & China will continue to haunt us without much viable answers in near foreseeable future, India needs to systematically articulate & evolve a comprehensive & long term National Strategy document which would give birth to a National Security Strategy catering for the prevailing & future security concerns. The success for the Indian Armed Forces will need an integration of the three military services under a Chief of Defence Staff. We can no longer afford to have stand alone Army, Navy & Air Forces doctrines. This National Strategy must also encompass the growing cyber, nuclear, biological, space & electronic threats.

24.  Let us not repeat our mistakes of the past. India needs to assert herself. Another important aspect that needs deliberation is whether India needs to possess an effective nuclear deterrent. In my opinion, this factor has now become acute in our security calculus, particularly in the context of China & Pakistan. Our National Strategy needs to be synergized with India’s Foreign Policy. There is a requirement of an apex organization directly working under the Prime Minister that should be made responsible for documenting our National Strategy & monitor National interests & relationship with our neighbours & other nation states in conjunction with the Foreign Ministry.

25.  There should be no political influence or party system here, since National Interests are supreme & are beyond everything. At the same time, we need to speed up our economic power to strengthen our Armed Forces. India the land of Kautilya needs to assert herself in fields of diplomacy & negotiations as both are done best from a position of strength. We should continue to accelerate our economic & military growth simultaneously & should not get carried away by the words of Wen Jiabao ‘that the Dragon & the Elephant should Tango’. Tango we may but we must keep our National interests above every thing! India must meaningfully engage Maldives, Seychelles, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines, South Korea & Japan on all fronts. If the Dragon can have a pearl string policy to encircle India so should we! We will have to decide as to how far we can go with the United States. Let us not forget that it was the then USSR that was our best & true friend in times of crisis. Our relations with Russia must continue to grow.

26.  The most important single factor on which our country should focus & depend is the unity factor amongst our people. With all that is going on in our country, neighbourhood & the world, we as Indians must sink our mutual differences as these may divide us. If India stands united, no power on this earth can down us. But unity means developing a strategic culture. India has a recorded history of over 5000 years. The Indic tradition has an unbroken cultural continuity of 10,000 years back that impresses us with the qualities of sacrifice, dedication, self esteem & the will to rise as a vibrant nation.

27.  One thing is for sure that if next Kargil takes place anywhere on our borders, India must be strong enough to take the battle to its logical conclusion & on her own terms. Going through pages of history, one finds that the conflict resolutions have taken place only when final victories & defeats have been arrived at. In the context of India & Pakistan, no “Aar-Paar” in wars has been fought by both nations so far primarily due to international pressures. How long will India confront military, terrorist, economic, psychological, social, communal, sectarian, ethnic, religious, territorial & physical abuses & threats being inflicted both by Pakistan & China? Time is running out & we must see the writings on wall else progeny will not forgive us.

28.   I will quote the famous words of Lord Vivekananda, quote “ARISE & AWAKE”, Unquote. Ever since Alexander the Great came out of the mountain passes of Afghanistan on to the plains of North India in 326 BC, Westerners have been reacting & recording their impressions of the rich, multi-hued culture of India.

29.  As a soldier of a democratic & proud India, I would say loudly that “IF BRITISH COULD GO ALL THE WAY TO FALKLAND, WE HAVE TO JUST WALK ACROSS!!”.

30.   Ladies & Gentlemen let me assure you one thing. Your Armed Forces are strong & brave, professionally competent, totally motivated, nationalistic, secular to the core, apolitical & fully competent to handle any external threat. Each & every Indian owns them & loves them. They are India’s pride. But they need your patronage, support, love & care. Look after them.